Esquema de objetivos de inflación, compromiso, comunicación y credibilidad: ¿por qué el Banco de México muestra dificultad para cumplir con su objetivo puntual de inflación del 3%?

César Geovanny Ángeles Sánchez (2021, [Tesis de maestría])

El presente documento realiza tres ejercicios empíricos para los temas de compromiso, comunicación y credibilidad del Banco de México. En última instancia, se busca responder al porqué, durante la implementación del esquema de objetivos de inflación (2003-2020), el Banco de México ha mostrado dificultad para cumplir con su objetivo puntual de inflación del 3%. Ya que, como lo indican los promedios de las series de tiempo, durante este periodo los niveles de la inflación y de las distintas expectativas de inflación se han ubicado por encima de la meta. Si bien los resultados confirman la credibilidad que tiene el Banco de México con el mantener una inflación baja y estable; siguiendo una regla de Taylor, se encuentra evidencia que, durante el periodo 2003-2020, el Banco de México ha sido tolerante con brechas positivas en el nivel de inflación (acentuándose, de manera significativa, durante el 2015-2020). En otras palabras, los resultados del documento sugieren que, durante la implementación del esquema de objetivos de inflación, el Banco de México ha ajustado su tasa de interés en busca de un nivel de inflación que se ubique en el intervalo que va del 3% + 1 punto porcentual pero no en la meta del 3%. Asimismo, resulta interesante que, del 2007 al 2020, cambios en la tasa de interés hayan sido motivados por brechas en el nivel de producción (tal como si el banco central mantuviese un mandato dual). Finalmente, a través de la construcción de un índice de comunicación que emplea los anuncios de política monetaria, se encuentra evidencia que la comunicación del Banco de México influye en las expectativas de inflación implicitas en instrumentos financieros y permite anticipar futuros movimientos en la tasa de interés (“forward guidance”).

Banco de México (1925- ) -- Effect of inflation (Finance) on -- Econometric models. Banks and banking, Central -- Mexico -- Econometric models. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Barreras de demanda a la inclusión financiera, un análisis de la ENIF 2018

Karla Isayuvi Amaro Estrada (2021, [Tesis de maestría])

La inclusión financiera es un factor importante en el desarrollo económico global. Existe una gran cantidad de literatura enfocada en el estudio de las barreras de oferta que impiden que las personas tengan acceso a diferentes productos y servicios financieros formales, sin embargo, resulta igualmente importante estimar el efecto que las barreras del lado de la demanda tienen, pues son éstas las que podrían estar afectando la elección de tener un producto financiero o no cuando el acceso esté disponible. Este trabajo hace uso de un modelo Probit para intentar aislar el efecto causal que tiene el Ingreso Anual, la Informalidad Laboral y la Alfabetización Financiera sobre la probabilidad de tenencia de Cuentas, Créditos y AFORES, utilizando datos de la ENIF 2018.

Financial exclusion -- Effect of financial literacy on -- Mexico -- Econometric models. Encuesta Nacional de Inclusión Financiera (2018 : México) CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Economic development, transport investment, and urbanization in Mexico: causality and effects

Vicente German-Soto Alexsandra De la Peña Flores Karina García (2023, [Artículo, Artículo])

The transport investment is often used as a tool for economic development and urbanization. However, there is still debate about whether transport improvements promote development and urbanization or, conversely, these latter create the conditions that stimulate the transport. In theory, the transport system contributes to development and urbanization because it speeds up the exchange of goods and services, but the effects can also be reversed, so the direction of causality is not so easily identified. This work uses Mexican state information of the 1988-2018 period, grouped as panel, to know both magnitude and direction of the impacts. Methodology consists in cointegration tests and VECM regressions. The results reveal that long-term causality goes from economic development to transport and its subsectors, which means that economic development is a necessary condition to modernize transport in Mexico. For urbanization, the causality and magnitude of the effects vary depending on the transport subsector. The total economy and passenger sector’s investments cause urbanization, but transportation and subsectors of cargo carriers and communications estimate two-way causality. The conclusions suggest that urbanization depends on improvements in transportation and the latter, in turn, on economic development.

Desarrollo regional Transporte Economía urbana Causalidad Modelo VECM CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES Economic development, Granger-Causality, VECM Models, Productivity, Urban Economics

Regional analysis of the wage discrimination in the indigenous workers in Mexico

Christian De la Luz-Tovar SIBYL ITALIA PINEDA SALAZAR (2023, [Artículo, Artículo])

The objective of this research is to estimate and decompose the wage gap between indigenous and non-indigenous workers by region in Mexico, to examine whether there are regional differences in the existing wage inequality that a priori affects the indigenous population and whether these differences can be attributed to the job profile of this group or by systematic labor discrimination against them. Using the data from the 2018 National Household Expenditure Revenue Survey (ENIGH-N) and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, it was found that indigenous workers face a wage gap in all regions of the county. But, this gap is more pronounced in the center and south regions, where, on average, the associated component with labor discrimination has a percentage greater than 56. In contrast, in the north-central and northern regions of Mexico, the residual component is on average less than 33%, which suggests that the wage gap is explained by differences in productivity between groups.                         

Labor economics Ethnicity wage gap Indigenous population Regions Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition Economía laboral Brecha salarial étnica Población indígena Regiones Descomposición de Oaxaca-Blinder CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

El impacto de la violencia en los flujos migratorios procedentes de Guatemala

Thania Berenice Hernández Alarcón (2021, [Tesis de maestría])

Con este trabajo buscamos entender cómo la violencia en el lugar de origen de una persona puede motivar su decisión de migrar. La aproximación teórica al fenómeno de la migración sugiere que la provisión relativa de bienes públicos es un factor en el análisis costo beneficio mediante el cual el agente evalúa la rentabilidad de la migración. Desde esta perspectiva, la búsqueda de beneficios pecuniarios, como un mayor salario, es compatible con la búsqueda de beneficios no pecuniarios, como mayores niveles de seguridad. Nos interesamos por evaluar lo anterior para el caso de Guatemala. Sirviéndonos de la variación trimestral de trecientos veintinueve municipios en una ventana de once años buscamos evidencia de que la tasa de migración de personas de origen guatemalteco que buscan empleo en México o Estados Unidos se correlaciona de manera positiva con la tasa de homicidios en sus municipios de origen. Nuestros resultados sugieren que esto se cumple y que aumentos en los niveles de violencia homicida pueden propiciar desplazamientos laborales.

Guatemala -- Emigration and immigration -- Effect of violence on -- Econometric models United States -- Emigration and immigration -- Econometric models. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

MLN disease diagnostics, MLN disease-free seed production and MLN disease management

Suresh L.M. (2023, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA DISEASES MAIZE PHENOTYPING GERMPLASM SYMPTOMS ECONOMIC ASPECTS

Regional analysis of the wage discrimination in the indigenous workers in Mexico

Christian De la Luz-Tovar SIBYL ITALIA PINEDA SALAZAR (2023, [Artículo, Artículo])

The objective of this research is to estimate and decompose the wage gap between indigenous and non-indigenous workers by region in Mexico, to examine whether there are regional differences in the existing wage inequality that a priori affects the indigenous population and whether these differences can be attributed to the job profile of this group or by systematic labor discrimination against them. Using the data from the 2018 National Household Expenditure Revenue Survey (ENIGH-N) and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, it was found that indigenous workers face a wage gap in all regions of the county. But, this gap is more pronounced in the center and south regions, where, on average, the associated component with labor discrimination has a percentage greater than 56. In contrast, in the north-central and northern regions of Mexico, the residual component is on average less than 33%, which suggests that the wage gap is explained by differences in productivity between groups.                         

Labor economics Ethnicity wage gap Indigenous population Regions Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition Economía laboral Brecha salarial étnica Población indígena Regiones Descomposición de Oaxaca-Blinder CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

MLN disease diagnostics, MLN disease-free seed production and MLN disease management

Suresh L.M. (2023, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA YIELD LOSSES DISEASES MAIZE PHENOTYPING GERMPLASM SYMPTOMS ECONOMIC ASPECTS

Women, economic resilience, gender norms in a time of climate change: what do we know?

Cathy Farnworth Anne Rietveld Rachel Voss Angela Meentzen (2023, [Artículo])

This literature delves into 82 research articles, published between 2016 and 2022, to develop a deep understanding of how women manage their lives and livelihoods within their agrifood systems when these systems are being affected, sometimes devastatingly, by climate change. The Findings show that four core gender norms affect the ability of women to achieve economic resilience in the face of climate change operate in agrifood production systems. Each of these gender norms speaks to male privilege: (i) Men are primary decision-makers, (ii) Men are breadwinners, (iii) Men control assets, and (iv) Men are food system actors. These gender norms are widely held and challenge women’s abilities to become economically resilient. These norms are made more powerful still because they fuse with each other and act on multiple levels, and they serve to support other norms which limit women’s scope to act. It is particularly noteworthy that many institutional actors, ranging from community decision-makers to development partners, tend to reinforce rather than challenge gender norms because they do not critically review their own assumptions.

However, the four gender norms cited are not hegemonic. First, there is limited and intriguing evidence that intersectional identities can influence women’s resilience in significant ways. Second, gender norms governing women’s roles and power in agrifood systems are changing in response to climate change and other forces, with implications for how women respond to future climate shocks. Third, paying attention to local realities is important – behaviours do not necessarily substantiate local norms. Fourth, women experience strong support from other women in savings groups, religious organisations, reciprocal labour, and others. Fifth, critical moments, such as climate disasters, offer potentially pivotal moments of change which could permit women unusually high levels of agency to overcome restrictive gender norms without being negatively sanctioned. The article concludes with recommendations for further research.

Economic Resilience Intersectional Identities Women Groups Support CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA ECONOMICS RESILIENCE CLIMATE CHANGE GENDER NORMS AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS WOMEN

The water crisis in the south-central region of the Chihuahua State and the 1997 UN Convention

Jorge Arturo Salas Plata Mendoza Thelma J. Garcia (2022, [Artículo, Artículo])

The present writing focuses on the water crisis in the south-central part of Chihuahua State in the year 2020. Recent literature points to the drought, excess demand for the vital liquid and overpopulation of this region, among other issues, as the causes of the emergency. This paper argues that the reasons mentioned above are not causes, but effects of an economic policy of capital valorization and accumulation, which go far beyond the carrying capacity of the ecosystems and their capacity to regulate the polluting processes. The obsolescence of the water treaties between Mexico and the US make it necessary to consider other alternatives such as the 1997 UN Convention on water.

Chihuahua water crisis hydro-agricultural crisis carrying capacity expansive growth 1997 UN Convention Ecological Economics crisis del agua crisis hidroagrícola capacidad de carga crecimiento expansivo Convención de la ONU de 1997 Economía Ecológica CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA