Review of Nationally Determined Contributions (NCD) of China from the perspective of food systems

Tek Sapkota (2023, [Documento de trabajo])

China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and one of the countries most affected by climate change. China's food systems are a major contributor to climate change: in 2018, China's food systems emitted 1.09 billion tons of carbondioxide equivalent (CO2eq) GHGs, accounting for 8.2% of total national GHG emissions and 2% of global emissions. According to the Third National Communication (TNC) Report, in 2010, GHG emissions from energy, industrial processes, agriculture, and waste accounted for 78.6%, 12.3%, 7.9%, and 1.2% of total emissions, respectively, (excluding emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Total GHG emissions from the waste sector in 2010 were 132 Mt CO2 eq, with municipal solid waste landfills accounting for 56 Mt. The average temperature in China has risen by 1.1°C over the last century (1908–2007), while nationally averaged precipitation amounts have increased significantly over the last 50 years. The sea level and sea surface temperature have risen by 90 mm and 0.9°C respectively in the last 30 years. A regional climate model predicted an annual mean temperature increase of 1.3–2.1°C by 2020 (2.3–3.3°C by 2050), while another model predicted a 1–1.6°C temperature increase and a 3.3–3.7 percent increase in precipitation between 2011 and 2020, depending on the emissions scenario. By 2030, sea level rise along coastal areas could be 0.01–0.16 meters, increasing the likelihood of flooding and intensified storm surges and causing the degradation of wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Addressing climate change is a common human cause, and China places a high value on combating climate change. Climate change has been incorporated into national economic and social development plans, with equal emphasis on mitigation and adaptation to climate change, including an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2021. The following overarching targets are included in China's updated NDC: • Peaking carbon dioxide emissions “before 2030” and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. • Lowering carbon intensity by “over 65%” by 2030 from the 2005 level. • Increasing forest stock volume by around 6 billion cubic meters in 2030 from the 2005 level. The targets have come from several commitments made at various events, while China has explained very well the process adopted to produce its third national communication report. An examination of China's NDC reveals that it has failed to establish quantifiable and measurable targets in the agricultural sectors. According to the analysis of the breakdown of food systems and their inclusion in the NDC, the majority of food system activities are poorly mentioned. China's interventions or ambitions in this sector have received very little attention. The adaptation component is mentioned in the NDC, but is not found to be sector-specific or comprehensive. A few studies have rated the Chinese NDC as insufficient, one of the reasons being its failure to list the breakdown of each sector's clear pathway to achieving its goals. China's NDC lacks quantified data on food system sub-sectors. Climate Action Trackers' "Insufficient" rating indicates that China's domestic target for 2030 requires significant improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement's target of 1.5°C temperature limit. Some efforts are being made: for example, scientists from the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (IEDA-CAAS) have developed methods for calculating GHG emissions from livestock and poultry farmers that have been published as an industrial standard by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, PRC (Prof Hongmin Dong, personal communication) but this still needs to be consolidated and linked to China’s NDC. The updated Nationally Determined Contributions fall short of quantifiable targets in agriculture and food systems as a whole, necessitating clear pathways. China's NDC is found to be heavily focused on a few sectors, including energy, transportation, and urban-rural development. The agricultural sectors' and food systems' targets are vague, and China's agrifood system has a large carbon footprint. As a result, China should focus on managing the food system (production, processing, transportation, and food waste management) to reduce carbon emissions. Furthermore, China should take additional measures to make its climate actions more comprehensive, quantifiable, and measurable, such as setting ambitious and clear targets for the agriculture sector, including activity-specific GHG-reduction pathways; prioritizing food waste and loss reduction and management; promoting sustainable livestock production and low carbon diets; reducing chemical pollution; minimizing the use of fossil fuel in the agri-system and focusing on developing green jobs, technological advancement and promoting climate-smart agriculture; promoting indigenous practices and locally led adaptation; restoring degraded agricultural soils and enhancing cooperation and private partnership. China should also prepare detailed NDC implementation plans including actions and the GHG reduction from conditional targets.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CLIMATE CHANGE FOOD SYSTEMS LAND USE CHANGE AGRICULTURE POLICIES DATA ANALYSIS FOOD WASTES

Using homosoils for quantitative extrapolation of soil mapping models

Andree Nenkam Alexandre Wadoux Budiman Minasny Alex McBratney Pierre C. Sibiry Traore Gatien Falconnier Anthony Whitbread (2022, [Artículo])

Cubist Digital Soil Mapping Model-Based Validation Soil Spatial Variation Soil-Forming Factors CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA LAND USE ORGANIC CARBON SOIL SURVEYS SPATIAL VARIATIONS

Review of Nationally Determined Contributions (NCD) of Kenya from the perspective of food systems

Tek Sapkota (2023, [Documento de trabajo])

Agriculture is one of the fundamental pillars of the 2022–2027 Bottom-up Economic Transformation Plan of the Government of Kenya for tackling complex domestic and global challenges. Kenya's food system is crucial for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Kenya has prioritized aspects of agriculture, food, and land use as critical sectors for reducing emissions towards achieving Vision 2030's transformation to a low-carbon, climate-resilient development pathway. Kenya's updated NDC, as well as supporting mitigation and adaptation technical analysis reports and other policy documents, has identified an ambitious set of agroecological transformative measures to promote climate-smart agriculture, regenerative approaches, and nature-positive solutions. Kenya is committed to implementing and updating its National Climate Change Action Plans (NCCAPs) to present and achieve the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets and resilience outcomes that it has identified.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOOD SYSTEMS LAND USE CHANGE AGRICULTURE POLICIES DATA ANALYSIS FOOD WASTES

Review of Nationally Determined Contributions (NCD) of Vietnam from the perspective of food systems

Tek Sapkota (2023, [Documento de trabajo])

Over the past decades, Vietnam has significantly progressed and has transformed from being a food-insecure nation to one of the world’s leading exporters in food commodities, and from one of the world’s poorest countries to a low-middle-income country. The agriculture sector is dominated by rice and plays a vital role in food security, employment, and foreign exchange. Vietnam submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in 2022 based on the NDC 2020. There is a significant increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, towards the long-term goals identified in Vietnam’s National Climate Change Strategy to 2025, and efforts are being made to fulfil the commitments made at COP26. The Agriculture Sector is the second-largest contributor of GHG emissions in Vietnam, accounting for 89.75 MtCO2eq, which was about 31.6 percent of total emissions in 2014. Rice cultivation is the biggest source of emissions in the agriculture sector, accounting for 49.35% of emissions from agriculture. The total GHG removal from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in 2014 was -37.54 MtCO2eq, of which the largest part was from the forest land sub-sector (35.61 MtCO2eq), followed by removal from croplands (7.31 MtCO2eq) (MONRE 2019).

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOOD SYSTEMS LAND USE CHANGE AGRICULTURE POLICIES DATA ANALYSIS

Review of Nationally Determined Contributions (NCD) of Colombia from the perspective of food systems

Tek Sapkota (2023, [Documento de trabajo])

Food is a vital component of Colombia's economy. The impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in the country is severe. The effects have resulted in decreased production and in the productivity of agricultural soil. Desertification processes are accelerating and intensifying. Colombia's government formally submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) on December 29, 2020. This paper examines Colombia's NDC from the standpoint of the food system.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOOD SYSTEMS LAND USE CHANGE AGRICULTURE POLICIES DATA ANALYSIS FOOD WASTES

Modeling spatiotemporal patterns of land use/land cover change in Central Malawi using a neural network model

Leah Mungai Joseph Messina Leo Zulu Jiaguo Qi Sieglinde Snapp (2022, [Artículo])

Multilayer Perceptrons CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA AGRICULTURE LAND USE POPULATION SATELLITE IMAGERY TEXTURE LAND COVER NEURAL NETWORKS REMOTE SENSING

Commodity crops in biodiversity-rich production landscapes: Friends or foes? The example of cotton in the Mid Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe

Frédéric Baudron Ken Giller (2022, [Artículo])

Land Sparing Land Sharing Human-Wildlife Conflicts CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA BIODIVERSITY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS LAND COVER LANDSCAPE MAMMALS CASH CROPS HUMAN-WILDLIFE RELATIONS LAND USE CHANGE

Clean fuel for rural families in India a major challenge: evidence from four rounds of consumer expenditure survey

Khondoker Mottaleb Dil Bahadur Rahut Jeetendra Aryal Akhter Ali (2022, [Artículo])

Clean Fuel Dirty Household’s Choice CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA COOKING FUELS RURAL AREAS HOUSEHOLDS EDUCATION INCOME USES

Worldwide selection footprints for drought and heat in bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Ana Luisa Gómez Espejo Carolina Sansaloni Juan Burgueño Fernando Henrique Toledo Adalberto Benavides-Mendoza M. Humberto Reyes-Valdés (2022, [Artículo])

Genome–Environment Associations Climatic Variables Hormonal Elicitors CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA ADAPTATION DROUGHT STRESS HEAT STRESS LANDRACES TRITICUM AESTIVUM

Landscape and micronutrient fertilizer effect on agro-fortified wheat and teff grain nutrient concentration in western Amhara

Tilahun Amede Elizabeth Bailey Abdul Wahab Mossa Dereje Tirfessa MESFIN KEBEDE DESTA Getachew Agegnehu Tesfaye Shiferaw Sida Stephan Haefele R. Murray Lark Martin Broadley Samuel Gameda (2023, [Artículo])

Agronomic biofortification, encompassing the use of mineral and organic nutrient resources which improve micronutrient concentrations in staple crops is a potential strategy to promote the production of and access to micronutrient-dense foods at the farm level. However, the heterogeneity of smallholder farming landscapes presents challenges on implementing agronomic biofortification. Here, we test the effects of zinc (Zn)- and selenium (Se)-containing fertilizer on micronutrient concentrations of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and teff (Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter) grown under different landscape positions and with different micronutrient fertilizer application methods in the western Amhara region of Ethiopia. Field experiments were established in three landscape positions at three sites, with five treatments falling into three broad categories: (1) nitrogen (N) fertilizer rate; (2) micronutrient fertilizer application method; (3) sole or co-application of Zn and Se fertilizer. Treatments were replicated across five farms per landscape position and over two cropping seasons (2018 and 2019). Grain Zn concentration ranged from 26.6 to 36.4 mg kg−1 in wheat and 28.5–31.2 mg kg−1 in teff. Grain Se concentration ranged from 0.02 to 0.59 mg kg−1 in wheat while larger concentrations of between 1.01 and 1.55 mg kg−1 were attained in teff. Larger concentrations of Zn and Se were consistently attained when a foliar fertilizer was applied. Application of ⅓ nitrogen (N) yielded significantly larger grain Se concentration in wheat compared to a recommended N application rate. A moderate landscape effect on grain Zn concentration was observed in wheat but not in teff. In contrast, strong evidence of a landscape effect was observed for wheat and teff grain Se concentration. There was no evidence for any interaction of the treatment contrasts with landscape position except in teff, where an interaction effect between landscape position and Se application was observed. Our findings indicate an effect of Zn, Se, N, landscape position, and its interaction effect with Se on grain micronutrient concentrations. Agronomic biofortification of wheat and teff with micronutrient fertilizers is influenced by landscape position, the micronutrient fertilizer application method and N fertilizer management. The complexity of smallholder environmental settings and different farmer socio-economic opportunities calls for the optimization of nutritional agronomy landscape trials. Targeted application of micronutrient fertilizers across a landscape gradient is therefore required in ongoing agronomic biofortification interventions, in addition to the micronutrient fertilizer application method and the N fertilizer management strategy.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA BIOFORTIFICATION LANDSCAPE SELENIUM ZINC WHEAT