Escenarios futuros de eventos extremos de precipitación y temperatura en México

Future changes of precipitation and temperature extremes in Mexico

Ernesto Ramos Esteban (2024, [Tesis de maestría])

Diferentes estudios a escala mundial indican un incremento en frecuencia de eventos climáticos extremos debido al calentamiento global y sugieren que podrían intensificarse en el futuro. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los posibles cambios de 12 índices climáticos extremos (ICE) de precipitación y temperatura en 15 regiones de México, el sur de los Estados Unidos y Centroamérica para un período histórico (1981-2010), un futuro cercano (2021-2040), un futuro intermedio (2041-2060) y un futuro lejano (2080-2099). Se utilizó el reanálisis ERA5 como referencia en la evaluación histórica de los modelos climáticos globales (MCG) y para las proyecciones se analizaron los ICE de diez MCG del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Climáticos, fase 6 (CMIP6), de acuerdo con dos escenarios de Vías Socioeconómicas Compartidas (SSPs), uno de bajas emisiones (SSP2-4.5) y otro de altas emisiones (SSP3-7.0). Los MCG reproducen muy bien los índices extremos de temperatura histórica y los días consecutivos secos, pero subestiman la lluvia promedio y la lluvia extrema en las zonas más lluviosas desde el centro de México hasta Centroamérica. Históricamente, se observaron tendencias positivas de las temperaturas extremas (TXx y TNn) en todas las regiones, pero sólo en algunas regiones fueron significativas, mientras que los índices de lluvia extrema (R95p, R10mm y R20mm) presentaron tendencias negativas, pero pequeñas. Las proyecciones indican que las temperaturas extremas podrían seguir incrementándose en el futuro, desde 2° C hasta 5° C a mitad y final de siglo, respectivamente. La contribución de la precipitación extrema arriba del percentil 95 (R95p) se podría incrementar entre un 10 % y 30 %, especialmente en la región subtropical, mientras que la precipitación podría disminuir en las regiones tropicales. Este estudio es el primero que analiza los cambios futuros de índices extremos del CMIP6 a escala regional (en 15 regiones) de México, el sur de Estados Unidos y Centroamérica.

Global-scale studies indicate an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events due to global warming and suggest that they could further intensify in the future. This study aims to assess potential changes in 12 extreme climate indices (ECI) related to precipitation and temperature in 15 regions in Mexico, the southern United States, and Central America for different periods: a historical period (1981-2010), a near future (2021-2040), an intermediate future (2041-2060), and a far future (2080-2099). The ERA5 reanalysis was used as a reference for the historical evaluation of global climate models (GCMs), and ECI from ten GCMs of phase 6 (CMIP6) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project were employed for the projections and examined under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, one characterized by low emissions (SSP2-4.5) and another representing high greenhouse gas emissions (SSP3-7.0). The GCMs reproduce historical extreme temperature indices and consecutive dry days very well. However, they underestimate average and extreme rainfall from central Mexico to Central America in the wetter areas. Historically, positive trends in extreme temperatures (TXx and TNn) were observed across all regions. However, statistical significance was only present in certain regions, while extreme rainfall indices (R95p, R10mm, and R20mm) exhibited small negative trends. The projections suggest that extreme temperatures could continue to increase in the future, from 2°C to 5°C by the mid and late century, respectively. The contribution of extreme precipitation above the 95th percentile (R95p) could increase by 10% to 30%, particularly in the subtropical regions, while precipitation might decrease in tropical regions. This study is the first to analyze future changes in extreme indices from CMIP6 at a regional scale (across 15 regions) in Mexico, the southern United States, and Central America.

Centroamérica, CMIP6, escenarios SSP, extremos climáticos, intercomparación de modelos climáticos, México Central America, climate extremes, CMIP6, intercomparison of climate models, Mexico, SSP scenarios CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA FÍSICA (VE R 5603 .04) OCEANOGRAFÍA FÍSICA (VE R 5603 .04)

Modelo híbrido de sistemas energéticos para la evaluación del uso de energías renovables

Carlos Iván Torres González (2020, [Tesis de maestría])

En este trabajo proponemos un modelo híbrido para evaluar diferentes escenarios de generación de electricidad con energías renovables que maximiza el bienestar social desde la perspectiva económica contemplando un enfoque técnico sobre la estructura de costos de producción de electricidad. Adicionalmente, realizamos 2 simulaciones del modelo propuesto al sistema eléctrico de Baja California Sur para 10 períodos, contemplando 4 escenarios de producción limpia diferentes. De los resultados observados en ambas simulaciones podemos remarcar 2 puntos en términos de políticas públicas. El primer punto es la importancia de tener múltiples generadores que funcionen con combustibles renovables si se desea producir una proporción significativa de electricidad con FER. El segundo punto es el trade-off entre bienestar y emisiones de CO2. Los resultados sugieren que el aumento del consumo de electricidad es un elemento importante para aumentar el bienestar social. A su vez, el aumento de consumo eléctrico implica un aumento de producción, y por tanto un aumento de emisiones de CO2. Los resultados de la segunda simulación sugieren que con el aumento de la capacidad de generación limpia y costos eficientes, se pueden alcanzar niveles de bienestar casi iguales a los tradicionales, pero con la mitad de emisiones de CO2.

Electric power production -- Effect of renewable energy sources on -- Mexico -- Baja California Sur (State) -- 2015 -- Mathematical models. Carbon dioxide mitigation -- Effect of renewable energy sources on -- Mexico -- Baja California Sur (State) -- 2015 -- Mathematical models. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Trophic ecology of Mexican Pacific harbor seal colonies using carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes

MARICELA JUAREZ RODRIGUEZ (2020, [Artículo])

There is limited information that provides a comprehensive understanding of the trophic ecology of Mexican Pacific harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardii) colonies. While scat analysis has been used to determine the diet of some colonies, the integrative characterization of its feeding habits on broader temporal and spatial scales remains limited. We examined potential feeding grounds, trophic niche width, and overlap, and inferred the degree of dietary specialization using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) in this subspecies. We analyzed δ13C and δ15N on fur samples from pups collected at five sites along the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico. Fur of natal coat of Pacific harbor seal pups begins to grow during the seventh month in utero until the last stage of gestation. Therefore pup fur is a good proxy for the mother's feeding habits in winter (∼December to March), based on the timing of gestation for the subspecies in this region. Our results indicated that the δ13C and δ15N values differed significantly among sampling sites, with the highest mean δ15N value occurring at the southernmost site, reflecting a well-characterized north to south latitudinal 15N-enrichment in the food web. The tendency identified in δ13C values, in which the northern colonies showed the most enriched values, suggests nearshore and benthic-demersal feeding habits. A low variance in δ13C and δ15N values for each colony (<1‰) and relatively small standard ellipse areas suggest a specialized foraging behavior in adult female Pacific harbor seals in Mexican waters. © 2020 Juárez-Rodríguez et al.

carbon, delta carbon 13, delta nitrogen 15, isotope, nitrogen, unclassified drug, carbon, nitrogen, Article, correlational study, feeding behavior, latitude, Mexico, nonhuman, organism colony, Pinnipedia, population abundance, species richness, troph BIOLOGÍA Y QUÍMICA CIENCIAS DE LA VIDA BIOLOGÍA ANIMAL (ZOOLOGÍA) BIOLOGÍA ANIMAL (ZOOLOGÍA)

Protein retention assessment of four levels of poultry by-product substitution of fishmeal in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) diets using stable isotopes of nitrogen (δ15N) as natural tracers

DANIEL BADILLO ZAPATA (2014, [Artículo])

This is second part from an experiment where the nitrogen retention of poultry by-product meal (PBM) compared to fishmeal (FM) was evaluated using traditional indices. Here a quantitative method using stable isotope ratios of nitrogen (δ15N values) as natural tracers of nitrogen incorporation into fish biomass is assessed. Juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were fed for 80 days on isotopically distinct diets in which 0, 33, 66 and 100% of FM as main protein source was replaced by PBM. The diets were isonitrogenous, isolipidic and similar in gross energy content. Fish in all treatments reached isotopic equilibrium by the end of the experiment. Two-source isotope mixing models that incorporated the isotopic composition of FM and PBM as well as that of formulated feeds, empirically derived trophic discrimination factors and the isotopic composition of fish that had reached isotopic equilibrium to the diets were used to obtain a quantitative estimate of the retention of each source of nitrogen. Fish fed the diets with 33 and 66% replacement of FM by PBM retained poultry by-product meal roughly in proportion to its level of inclusion in the diets, whereas no differences were detected in the protein efficiency ratio. Coupled with the similar biomass gain of fishes fed the different diets, our results support the inclusion of PBM as replacement for fishmeal in aquaculture feeds. A re-feeding experiment in which all fish were fed a diet of 100% FM for 28 days indicated isotopic turnover occurred very fast, providing further support for the potential of isotopic ratios as tracers of the retention of specific protein sources into fish tissues. Stable isotope analysis is a useful tool for studies that seek to obtain quantitative estimates of the retention of different protein sources. © 2014 Badillo et al.

nitrogen 15, nitrogen, protein intake, animal behavior, animal experiment, animal food, animal tissue, aquaculture, Article, biomass, controlled study, energy metabolism, food composition, juvenile animal, nonhuman, poultry by product meal, protein a CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA

Offshore wind energy climate projection using UPSCALE climate data under the RCP8.5 emission scenario

MARKUS SEBASTIAN GROSS (2016, [Artículo])

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)- Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide some guidance for wind power developers and policy makers to prepare and adapt for climate change impacts on wind energy production. Although offshore locations around Mexico were used as a case study, the dataset is global and hence the methodology presented can be readily applied at any desired location. © Copyright 2016 Gross, Magar. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reprod

atmosphere, climate change, Europe, Mexico, sampling, time series analysis, university, weather, wind power, climate, risk, theoretical model, wind, Climate, Models, Theoretical, Risk, Wind CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA